| Course | PM 585 Project Scheduling and Value Management (PM/585) |
|---|---|
| Week | 6 |
| Paper type | Graduate earned value analysis |
| Length | about 1,222 words, 4 double-spaced pages plus title page and references |
| Format | APA 7 student paper |
| School | University of Phoenix |
| Program | MBA |
| Updated | October 2026 |
Free sample paper for PM 585 Week 6
Half the Lines, Ninety-Four Cents on the Dollar: An Earned Value Analysis of a Lead Line Program After Its First Season
[Student Name]
University of Phoenix
PM/585: Project Scheduling and Value Management
Week 6 Assignment
[Instructor Name]
[Date]
The water authority, its earned value data, forecasts and value measures are composites written for a model paper.
The composite Allegheny Ridge Water Authority finished the first construction season of its lead service line program on October 31. Week 5 showed the program three blocks behind in July and set out recovery actions. This paper applies earned value analysis to the program's position at season's end, forecasts its final cost and finish and asks what the numbers mean for the second season.
How Value Is Earned
Earned value management compares planned work, completed work and actual cost on a common budget scale (Project Management Institute [PMI], 2021). Its reliability depends on clear rules for when work earns value. Kim et al. (2003) studied the implementation of earned value management and found that its acceptance and usefulness depended on organizational factors, including how well the method was integrated with the way the organization planned and reported work. The authority set simple, verifiable rules. Each replacement earns its budgeted value, set by line type from the Week 3 model, when it passes inspection. Restoration earns value block by block when the city streets inspector signs off. Management, engagement and records work earn value in proportion to elapsed time, since they are level-of-effort.
The budget at completion for measured work is $27.8 million, the base estimate from Week 3. Contingency of $2.0 million and a board-controlled reserve of $1.5 million are tracked separately.
Status at October 31
Planned value (PV): $14.2 million.
Earned value (EV): $13.1 million.
Actual cost (AC): $13.9 million.
Replacements completed: 1,150, against 1,200 planned for the season; blocks restored: 26 of 28 planned.
Variances and Indexes
Schedule variance, EV minus PV, is negative $1.1 million: work worth $1.1 million in budget terms is behind plan.
Cost variance, EV minus AC, is negative $0.8 million: completed work cost $0.8 million more than its budget.
The schedule index, with planned value as the divisor, is 13.1 / 14.2 = 0.92.
The cost index, with actual cost as the divisor, is 13.1 / 13.9 = 0.94.
The recovery actions from Week 5 narrowed the schedule gap from about 19 percent in July to about 8 percent by season's end, but did not close it. Cost performance reflects the higher share of interior work and the overtime used in August.
Four Estimates at Completion
If future work costs what it is budgeted to cost: EAC = AC + (BAC minus EV) = 13.9 + 14.7 = $28.6 million.
If cost performance so far continues: EAC = BAC / CPI = 27.8 / 0.94 = about $29.5 million.
If the cost and schedule trends both carry into the remaining work: EAC = AC plus the remaining budget divided by the product of the two indexes = 13.9 + 14.7 / 0.87 = about $30.8 million.
Bottom-up re-estimate by the project team, using first-season actual costs by line type and the second-season block list: about $29.7 million.
Against a cost baseline of $29.8 million, the first, second and fourth forecasts fall inside contingency; the third would need about $1.0 million of the board's $1.5 million reserve. Vandevoorde and Vanhoucke (2006) compared duration forecasting methods using earned value data and found that methods based on earned schedule generally forecast duration more reliably than those based on dollar indexes; on the cost side, the spread among formulas is a reminder that each rests on an assumption about the future rather than a fact.
The To-Complete Index
To land on the $27.8 million base estimate, the unfinished work would need a cost index of (BAC minus EV) / (BAC minus AC) = 14.7 / 13.9 = 1.06, six percent better than planned when the program has been running six percent worse. Finishing within the cost baseline, including contingency, requires an index of 14.7 / 15.9 = 0.92, which current performance exceeds. The realistic goal is to stay within the cost baseline, not the base estimate.
A to-complete index of 1.06 after a season at 0.94 is not a target; it is a wish.
Schedule in Time Units
Dollar-based schedule indexes drift toward 1.0 as a program nears completion, so the authority also measures schedule in time. Construction began on April 7, so October 31 is about 6.8 months into the planned construction time. The baseline reached $13.1 million of planned value around October 14, about 6.2 months in, so the program has earned about 6.2 months of planned work in 6.8 months, a time-based index of about 0.91. If that rate held for the whole of the second season, the remaining work would run about six weeks past its planned end, after the asphalt plants close. Much of the first-season shortfall, however, came from access agreements, which the earlier outreach adopted in Week 5 addresses. The team's block-by-block forecast, assuming access improves to about 85 percent, puts the likely overrun at about three weeks. A tenth crew for the full second season, about 28 crew-weeks of added capacity, covers that gap with some margin, and the October check will show whether the access assumption held.
Earned Value Versus Value Delivered
Earned value measures budgeted work completed; it says nothing directly about health. The authority therefore reports value delivered alongside the analysis: all 46 lines serving schools and child care centers replaced; 1,150 households no longer served by lead lines, about 31 percent of them with children under six; lines replaced in the two highest-priority neighborhoods ahead of schedule; and follow-up samples at 200 replaced addresses all below the action level. These results suggest the program's purpose is being met even while cost and schedule run slightly behind.
Limits of the Analysis
Earned value rests on the budget assigned to each line type, and the first season showed that the mix of line types can shift. If the second-season blocks contain more interior work than the inventory suggests, earned value per line will look normal while actual cost runs higher, and the cost index will fall. The analysis also treats level-of-effort work as earning value with time, which can hide inefficiency in management and outreach. The team will therefore review cost per line by type monthly, alongside the indexes, so that a change in mix is not mistaken for a change in performance.
Recommendations
First, adopt the team's bottom-up forecast of about $29.7 million as the working estimate and report the range of formulas to the board. Second, mobilize the tenth crew from April for the full second season. Third, ask the board to authorize up to $0.5 million of reserve now, to be released only if the October check shows the third forecast becoming likely. Fourth, keep the outreach timeline and release rule from Week 5, since access was the main constraint.
Conclusion
After one season, the lead line program has completed about 96 percent of its planned replacements while earning 92 cents of planned work per dollar of planned value and 94 cents per dollar spent. Forecasts place the final cost between about $28.6 and $30.8 million, mostly within the cost baseline, and time-based analysis shows a schedule risk of three to six weeks in the second season, which earlier outreach and one more crew are expected to cover. Most important, the value residents receive, lead lines removed where children live and learn, is on track.
References
Kim, E., Wells, W. G., & Duffey, M. R. (2003). A model for effective implementation of Earned Value Management methodology. International Journal of Project Management, 21(5), 375-382. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(02)00049-2
Project Management Institute. (2021). A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK guide) (7th ed.). Project Management Institute.
Vandevoorde, S., & Vanhoucke, M. (2006). A comparison of different project duration forecasting methods using earned value metrics. International Journal of Project Management, 24(4), 289-302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2005.10.004
What the PM 585 Week 6 instructions ask
In the final PM 585 paper, graduate students generally carry out an earned value analysis and use it to evaluate project performance and forecast outcomes. Prompts may call for the three base figures (PV, EV and AC), the two variances, the two indexes, several estimates at completion with their assumptions, the to-complete performance index, variance at completion and an interpretation with recommendations. Some versions ask for earned schedule or a discussion of earned value's limits. Use data from your project or a supplied case, show each formula and result and support the analysis with journal research on earned value and forecasting accuracy, cited in APA.
How this PM 585 Week 6 example is built
The sample begins by explaining the earning rule: each replacement earns its budgeted value when it passes inspection, and restoration earns value when the street inspector signs off. At October 31 the program has earned $13.1 million of work against $14.2 million planned and $13.9 million spent. The paper computes the variances and indexes, then four forecasts of final cost ranging from about $28.6 million to $30.8 million, and shows which ones fall inside the cost baseline and which need reserve. An earned schedule calculation estimates the delay in months. A value section reports lines replaced at child care centers and in high-priority blocks, and the conclusion recommends second-season actions and a reserve request.
PM 585 Week 6 grading rubric: where the points go
Graduate graders assess accuracy, interpretation and judgment on this final paper. Strong submissions state the earning rules, compute every measure correctly, show formulas and compare several estimates at completion with their assumptions explained. Credit goes to schedule forecasting in time units, to sound interpretation of the to-complete index and to recommendations that follow from the analysis. Papers that connect earned value, which measures cost and schedule performance, to the value the project delivers to its stakeholders show the depth the course aims for. Graders also reward a short explanation of the earning rules, since every later number depends on them. Research on forecasting accuracy, readable figures and well-formatted APA references finish the strongest papers.
PM 585 Week 6 help: mistakes to avoid
Sign and formula errors cost more points here than anywhere else in the course. Check that a negative variance means behind or over and that each index divides earned value by the right figure. Another common gap is presenting one estimate at completion as if it were certain; compare at least three and say what each assumes. Students also forget that cost-based schedule indexes drift toward 1.0 as a project nears completion; use a time-based measure when the project is well advanced. Some papers treat earned value as the same thing as value delivered; explain the difference. Finally, end with decisions for the sponsor, not just numbers. A tutor can rework each formula alongside you if your totals refuse to reconcile.
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PM 585 Week 6 questions, answered
What does PM 585 Week 6 usually cover?
The closing week centers on earned value analysis: the three base figures, the gaps and ratios between them, several forecasts of final cost, the index the rest of the work must hit, and what all of it means for the sponsor's next decisions.
Where can I find a free PM 585 Week 6 sample paper?
The Week 6 earned value analysis above, for a lead line replacement program after its first season with four forecasts, is free to read in full.
Which estimate at completion is most accurate?
No single formula is always best. Research suggests forecasts using the cost index are often reasonable, while those combining cost and schedule indexes can be more conservative; comparing several shows the likely range.
What does a to-complete performance index above 1.0 mean?
It means the remaining work must be done more efficiently than planned to finish within the target budget. If it is well above the index achieved so far, the target is unlikely to be met.
Is earned value the same as the value a project delivers?
No. Earned value measures budgeted work completed. The value a project delivers is the benefit to stakeholders, such as health, safety or revenue, which must be measured separately.
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